November 5, 2023--So far the fire has primarily been a “low intensity” fire that (with the exception of one day last week) has not been appreciably stoked by high winds. Thankfully. But every day is different and new challenges arise.
Late yesterday, the fire broke through containment lines to the west and is now burning well into the National Park and up along the higher elevations of Double Top Mountain (which is directly across from our RME ridge). We can see new fires burning this morning across from us. It looks to us as if the fire is now going to be moving north along Double Top and posing a threat to residents up Finks Hollow. It is deep into the Rapidan Wildlife Management Area now (which is closed) and likely to go over to Fork Mountain. Power lines up to Big Meadows on the parkway were threatened yesterday and have been shut off and drained of power as a precaution. People reporting to us from the front lines are suggesting that the fire is now out of control in the park and expressing discouragement. Helicopters—flown in from California—have been dropping water on flares all week. Crews have told us that the pilots receive GPS locations from the ground crew to determine the optimal drop areas and in some instances make drop decisions from their aerial surveillance.
We spoke to one of the operations chiefs and walked an active trail with him as he was surveying the fires. He explained that this fire is complicated by the steep terrain, the severe drought, and the extensive underbrush—especially the invasive vines, which create bridges for the fire to exploit by moving up the trees and over ground containment lines. Nonetheless, the fire is primarily burning at ground level and healthy, mature trees are being sparred. He also explained that this fire is far from being put out. No rain possible until later this week and the containment lines—which are still being cut to account for breaches—encompass over 1600 acres. By the end of the day, I expect the fires will have burned well over 2,000 acres. The tally was 1900 acres 18 hours ago.
The wind has picked up this morning in a way that has given us a reprieve from the intense bolus of smoke that has been lingering over us but it going to complicate things for the firefighters.
The Shenandoah National Park says it has "closed Graves Mill Trail and Wilhite Wagon Trail for visitor safety. The Rapidan Tract of the Rapidan Wildlife Management Area is closed for safety reasons. The fire continues to impact a wide area with smoke."
The GM of Graves Mt. Lodge told us this morning that an official air quality monitor will be
stationed here starting today. A bit overdue, but helpful. At times we’ve had huge smoke plumes blot out the sun here, creating an unsettling glowering cast to the landscape. Typically, you can monitor air quality here: https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Syria&state=VA&country=USA. Right now there is NO meaningful data for our area. So it’s wrong on the map. Hopefully that will change soon. They’ve updated their hazard warning to read: "HIKING ADVISORY: The Whiteoak Canyon and Old Rag Trails are open but at times are impacted by dense smoke, which may reach UNHEALTHY to VERY UNHEALTHY levels. These are strenuous trails requiring prolonged heavy exertion. Smoke sensitive groups are advised to avoid these trails and everyone is encouraged to take precautions as conditions can change quickly.” (https://outlooks.airfire.org/outlook/dc5a2d56?lat=38.49427258013243&lon=-78.32173402501901&viewoutlook=force)
Dozens of local folks are working alongside the professional crews in dangerous conditions at personal risk. It’s admirable to see how hard everyone is working to manage the situation. Everyone is calm and organized. No structures have burnt and there are no serious injuries.
When asked about the cause of the fire, crews and an operational director all said that the cause was unknown and under investigation. We have read repeated claims that this fire was caused by lightening. Several of the crews we spoke to said that while that may be possible, it was unlikely. The phenomenon where lightning strikes a tree which then harbors a smoldering fire in its roots for a week or more before breaking out is not seen much on the East Coast. In fact, they said, lightening is not a leading cause of forest fires in Virginia. (85%
or more of our fires are caused by people losing control of buying debris.) Therefore, the Department of Forestry will conduct fire forensics to establish a probable cause. Meanwhile, any reports on the cause are purely speculative. So don’t believe anything you read about that. There will be plenty of time to let the experts sort that out once the danger has passed.
We have been told that this fire is likely to continue to burn, foul our air, and present challenges to our community until December.
Key information sources include websites and social media for:
Madison County Department of Emergency Management
Virginia Department of Forestry
National Park Service
If you’d like to make a donation bring all them directly to the Madison County Department of EMS at 1494 N. Main Street. They will ensure your donation is brought to our people in the most efficient manner.
For updates on the Quaker Run Fire, please visit the links provided.
Madison County Department of Emergency Management
Virginia Department of Forestry
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